Discussions between Togolese political actors, including the C14 and the regime in place with the facilitation of Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo, begin with some results. The exchanges of February 19, which extended late into the night, resulted in a few points of agreement. The regime has committed to release 45 detainees, grant bail to those in the fire case, and deal with other detainees on a case-by-case basis. The Coalition of 14 Political Parties, in turn, committed to suspend the markets during the dialogue period.
In the aftermath of the facilitation press conference announcing the decisions taken, the gates of Lomé, Atakpamé, Sokodé and Dapaong prisons have opened wide. The lifting of the nut continued in the day of last Wednesday with the temporary freedom granted to the alleged authors of the fires arbitrarily imprisoned for 5 years. There are still at least 40 detainees including three (03) members of the Nubueke Movement. Their case should be addressed as soon as facilitation returns.
The first discussions between the authorities and the opposition on the issues of prerequisites were a test of nerves. Which, in reality, does not bode well for the rest of the process. Far from the Evala Room and in parallel with exchanges between the government and the regime, the Ghanaian President has had several meetings with Faure Gnassingbé on sensitive issues, including the question of his departure at the end of his mandate in 2020 and the case of his half Brother Kpatcha Gnassingbé, imprisoned in the Lomé civil prison following the incredible case of an attempt to undermine the internal security of the State.
Is Kpatcha Gnassingbé still a threat to Faure?
For facilitation, the appeasement measures must be extended to Kpatcha Gnassingbe. The objective is to definitively turn the page of some unfortunate events and trigger a national reconciliation. We can not continue to speak of appeasement if in a corner of Togo, citizens who recognize themselves as a politician continue to harbor bitterness. This is how the Kpatcha Gnassingbé case was clearly put on the table. According to authorized sources, the tenant of the Palace of the Marina had promised some of his peers in the area including the President of Ghana the release of his brother and his companions in misfortune. It is in this sense that some detainees in this case were released a few months ago.
But on the case of the former Minister of Defense and Veterans, Faure Gnassingbé does not seem determined to release him, referring without much detail of possible "threats within his family." It is nevertheless curious that whoever has all the arsenal of repression in the country (army, intelligence, self-defense group) and instrumentalizes the justice according to his moods, can evoke threats within his family to himself. to take away promises made to his colleagues. For facilitation, it is necessary to settle the case of Kpatcha Gnassingbe so that appeasement is general in the country. This file is therefore on the agenda in the discretion, far from the concerns of the political class.
Departure in 2020 and the blackmail of the army
After the euphoria of the release of the detainees, the stakeholders will get into the heart of the discussions, and there is much to fear a blockage on the question of the return to the 1992 Constitution and its consequences, that is to say the departure of Faure Gnassingbé. Without waiting for this step, the "simple man" has clearly expressed his position to his counterpart in Ghana. He is willing to make some concessions on constitutional reforms, but no question for him to leave power in 2020 at the end of his third term. According to informed sources, the current tenant of the presidential palace believes that the question of his departure from the head of the country after 15 years of rule and 38 years of his father does not depend on him, but on the army. For him, it is the army that opposes its withdrawal in 2020, and she would not be ready to forgive him in case he envisages such a departure. Surrealist, could we say.
If we stick to these indiscretions, it is the army and not him who opposes any idea of alternation at the top of the state. Finally, is the Togolese army at the service of the Republic or a clan, a family or an individual? The answer is unequivocal. But are the facts really so? There is reason to doubt and even ask the question, between Faure Gnassingbe and the army, who threatens whom? Since the sad events of April 2009, that is to say the arrest of Kpatcha Gnassingbé and the sidelining of several senior officers who played a very important role in the February 2005 coup d'état, Faure Gnassingbé has really taken power and happens to be the only master on board. No Togolese army officer can lift a finger to challenge anything.
Apart from this minority, the entire Togolese army, which is languishing in destitution, is seeking a real change at the head of the country. To meet his counterparts that it is the Togolese army who opposes his departure in 2020, appears not only as blackmail, but this statement exposes the army itself. "Dogs do not make cats," they often say. Like his father, Faure Gnassingbé knows how to blackmail the army as soon as he finds himself in difficulties. The famous big report of the FAT on the eve of the dialogue he boycotted the opening ceremony and the motion of support for him by the military hierarchy were not hazardous acts. In 2012 already, during a visit to France, questioned about his departure, Faure Gnassingbe had hinted that he wanted to reinstate for a third and last time. In 2018, in his third term, he wants to be allowed to run for a fourth.
By 2025 when all the current heads of state in the region will no longer be there, he will find new allies for a fifth term. This is Faure Gnassingbé's real strategy, and naively, some of his colleagues and diplomats trust him, even if he is disappointed later. If the Togolese army really opposes the alternation at the top of the state, thus justifying the accusations of a clan army, it will be necessary to identify the refractory officers and punish them. Togo can no longer be a curiosity in the West African region. If the current dialogue does not lead to an agreement, was it secret, stating the departure of Faure Gnassingbe in 2020, then it will be a bitter failure that will drag the country towards uncertain horizons.
According to several sources, the regime is preparing to deploy the entire military territory in the aftermath of the dialogue. A kind of state of emergency that will not say its name whose purpose is to stifle any disputes.
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