On 19 August, demonstrations took place in five major cities in Togo, with demands for a return to the 1992 constitution, which limited the number of presidential mandates to two, and diaspora voting. These political demands alone do not explain the importance of these gatherings on an unprecedented scale since 2005. In reality, the vast majority of Togolese simply want President Faure Gnassingbe to leave and the end fifty years of repressive rule of the Eyadema family. On 6 and 7 September, the opposition parties are organizing new demonstrations throughout the country. Given the balance of power, popular on the side of demonstrators and military on the side of power, these two days are at high risk.
Etienne Gnassingbé Eyadema came to power in 1967, when he died in 2005, his son replaced him after a very contested presidential election. As a reminder, the demonstrations which followed this poll caused between 400 and 500 deaths, more than 10 000 injured and 30 000 refugees (1). Since then, Togo has lived in a climate of constant fear. How can we explain the continuing support of the European Union (EU) "international community", donors, the International Organization of the Francophonie (OIF), etc., to this fiftieth anniversary?
The "international community" claims that peace and stability are two important factors, which is why it supports strong regimes. But it is a very short-sighted policy, because it is these powers which, by impoverishing populations, allow jihadists to recruit idle young people, it is these powers that create despair and thus the influx of migrants into the countries Western. There are also some strategic interests, Togo is a major provider of troops in all UN and ECOWAS peacekeeping missions and a military airport in the north of the country is sometimes used as a base for contingent aircraft foreigners. Until now, France has supported the current power, during the 2015 elections, Manuel Valls has largely supported Faure Gnassingbé (2), Dominique Strauss Kahn has been present in Lomé lately to help the regime with the IMF, but the new African policy of President Macron is not yet very clear. Nevertheless, it seems that things are starting to change, especially on the side of Germany, which is becoming aware of the nature of this government (3). The Presidency pledged to the German employers to carry out decentralization in return for strong investments. These investments have been made, but none of the agreements signed by the authorities have been respected, Angela Merkel begins to understand that she has been abused. it seems that things are beginning to change, especially on the side of Germany, which is becoming aware of the nature of this government. The Presidency pledged to the German employers to carry out decentralization in return for strong investments. These investments have been made, but none of the agreements signed by the authorities have been respected, Angela Merkel begins to understand that she has been abused. it seems that things are beginning to change, especially on the side of Germany, which is becoming aware of the nature of this government. The Presidency pledged to the German employers to carry out decentralization in return for strong investments. These investments have been made, but none of the agreements signed by the authorities have been respected, Angela Merkel begins to understand that she has been abused.
On the domestic front, how has this situation lasted so long? Is it not because of the triptych well known in some African countries: repression, buying consciences, weakness of the opposition?
Indeed, Faure Gnassingbé relies on several levers including corruption. There were defections in the opposition, reversals of jackets, but that no longer serves any purpose, because when consciences are bought, these are immediately delegitimized by the population. The other method is the instrumentalisation of justice, by imputing to the opponents of the common rights cases that send them into prison or into exile. Finally, there is electoral fraud, all the minutes of local electoral commissions (TFSAs) in the north of the country are recovered and trafficked within 48 or 72 hours. The so-called impartial observers do not see anything because they do not venture into the cities of the interior, they stay in the hotels of Lomé. In the April 2015 presidential election, the OIF sent a mission headed by General Sangaré (4), the latter asked for a helicopter to go to the North, in order to bring back the results that were late to reach the National Electoral Commission but once there, has denied access to these TFSAs. He was furious and promised to mention it in his report, but when the OIF report was published, these facts were not mentioned in the document.
What is the economic and social situation?
In a speech to the nation in April 2012, Faure Gnassingbé said he would tackle the minority, which takes all the wealth of the country, it was an explicit recognition of one of the main problems of Togo. In reality, nothing has ever been done. The situation is increasingly alarming. Under the constraints of the donors, the IMF, the World Bank and their demand for a balanced budget, no more investment is made in health or education, in terms of indebtedness Togo has returned to the level of 2007 and 2008 before the HIPC completion point (5). Dark cuts in the state budget have even exacerbated extreme poverty. The fires in the major markets of Kara and Lomé in January 2013 have increased poverty in urban areas. These arson attacks were committed by the military and charged to the opposition. To be able to incriminate his opponents, the power does not hesitate to ruin the economy. The Lomé market, for example, where Nana Benz, traders specializing in the African fabric, have an entire ecosystem, sellers, porters, etc. which made it possible to support many families. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has provided funds to rebuild these markets, but these funds have disappeared ... Every five years, UNDP reports on poverty indices by region, by 2016, has not been published as planned, is this to say that the results of this study are very worrying? The Lomé market, for example, where Nana Benz, traders specializing in the African fabric, have an entire ecosystem, sellers, porters, etc. which made it possible to support many families. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has allocated funds to rebuild these markets, but these funds have disappeared ... Every five years, UNDP reports on poverty indices by region in 2016, has not been published as planned, is this to say that the results of this study are very worrying? The Lomé market, for example, where Nana Benz, traders specializing in the African fabric, have an entire ecosystem, sellers, porters, etc. which made it possible to support many families. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has allocated funds to rebuild these markets, but these funds have disappeared ... Every five years, UNDP reports on poverty indices by region in 2016, has not been published as planned, is this to say that the results of this study are very worrying?
At the demonstration on August 19, a new party, the Pan-African National Party (PNP), appeared to emerge from nowhere, rumors circulated about this party, namely that it is an ethnic, Muslim party only is he really and how has he been able to federate so many people around him in such a short time?
Tikpi Atchadam, the President of the PNP is not a newcomer to politics, he was for a long time the number two of another party, the RDP led by Zarifou Ayéva whose base has always been in the area of the city of Sokode where the inhabitants are predominantly Muslim. He created the PNP in 2014 with the financial support of the diaspora of his ethnic group, TEM, many of whom live in Germany, Belgium or North America. There are several explanations for the success of the demonstration on 19 August, first the symbolic date of the fifty years of power of the Eyadema family, the people are exasperated, then the growing poverty, and finally the strategy of Tikpi Atchadam, within the Togolese system, which really changed the situation. Usually, demonstrations take place only in the capital, this time they took place in several cities at the same time, which did not allow the forces, police and army to quadrille all the events. For years, the government imposed an itinerary, between an outlying district of Lomé and the beach with the result of making its gatherings invisible and inoperative. This time, the leader of the PNP refused the drawing of power, this refusal was experienced by the population as a mark of courage. The other opposition parties had not rallied to these demonstrations on August 19, but militants of all parties braved the orders to go to these rallies. Tikpi Atchadam is of the North, like those of the ruling UNIR party, so he has shattered all the ethnic justifications, north / south,
After the demonstration on 19 August, on the social networks, photographs of demonstrators armed with Kalashnikov circulated on social networks, officially there were two deaths and about sixty arrests, a report attributed to these armed demonstrators. What is it?
One must be wary of the images that circulate, there are assemblies realized by the power to discredit its opponents. For example, if you analyze these photographs of armed men, you can see that some of them show people in a confined space, and at no time on the 19th and 20th of August there were demonstrators in a stadium. Another important point to note is the size of the prominent people and the prominent figures who prove the manipulation. Finally the color of the jerseys, this color of the T-shirts is important. Many Togolese are still illiterate and do not identify with the names of political parties, but with the colors of knitwear. On the images broadcast on the social networks, there are superpositions of different jerseys,
Other demonstrations were planned for 30 and 31 August, but were postponed until 6 and 7 September, why?
There are three reasons for this. The first, Faure Gnassingbe's party, UNIR, also launched a slogan of demonstrations in Lomé for the last days of August, people came from all the prefectures to fight in the capital, the opposition knew it, it was vulnerable, it wanted to avoid a massacre, by armed forces all concentrated in Lomé. Second reason, as the opposition parties rallied to the PNP for demonstrations in all the cities of Togo on 6 and 7 September, it was necessary to let the Muslims celebrate the tabaski, it was also necessary to organize in each city. Finally, political leaders have a problem with their demands that no longer correspond to the aspirations of the population.
Will the next few days be decisive for Togo?
Yes I think so. On the one hand, the population shows real determination and on the other, the power is afraid, the army growls. Comprising more than 80% of the Kabyè ethnic group, the Gnassingbe ethnic group, the army is tired of being instrumentalized, serving only one family. But the clan of the government is resolutely determined not to let go of its prerogatives. Discontent grew all the more so as the Kabyès, notably Kpatcha Gnassingbe, Faure's half brother and Pascal Bodjona, "thoroughbreds", as it is whispered in the barracks and in the ranks of the UNIR party, were brutally ejected by the system after faithfully serving the President. There are rumors that power has been used by supplants, demobilized Chadians, Nigerians and Sudanese. The climate is extremely tense.
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